At the moment their are some flurries coming down in Norht London and this is expected to continue. Occasionally these flurries will become heavier and we have already seen signs that this may start to settle, especially in those areas of high elevation. Whether we get significant snow fall is still open to a lot of doubt.
At the moment the best chance for snow is Thursday night into Friday and Friday night into Saturday. It doesn't look like either of these events will be anything more than a dusting, however as is the nature of snow in then UK it is very hard to predict especially when it is North Sea effect snow. What we do know at the moment is that today (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday) temperatures are unlikely to get above freezing. Another thing that is open to some doubt is what will happen on Sunday. It is unclear whether we will get rain or snow or even a mix. As always we will keep you updated as and when we get the information.
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Just a quick note to all those travelling today. Where there is snow on the ground, please seek to avoid it as it has most likely formed into an ice sheet over night, worst hit areas seem to be Mill Hill, and one would assume Barnet.
Also regarding the snow that was forecast for this morning, as with the nature of showers they are hard to predict at the moment it looks as though they will miss us, but if snow does fall it will likely help to melt the ice. There could also be a light dusting in places. Snow showers are more likely the further east you are. At the moment Saturday looks sunny with a few flurries possible, and Sunday looks as though it will mainly be rain. We will now be turning our attention to next week as at the moment it is forecasted to stay cold. Right on cue the snow has started to set in an is likely to last for the next five hours, however until the temperature drops settling will be restricted to cars, and grassy surfaces. Low visibility is possible due to the high winds forecast for the next two hours. At this moment in time over night tonight temperatures could reach as low as -4 degrees and this could lead to a Black Ice threat, and a widespread frost. It also looks increasingly likely that the snow forecast for tomorrow morning will be heavy however will only be with us for an hour or so. At the end of the event there could be a slushy accumulation of up to 5cm, with some parts still possibly receiving more. There is also the added threat of thunder snow, so please take all precautions necessary in the event of lightning or the snow turning to hail.
We will keep you updated as we get the information... Although schools have been told to close early will it actually snow???
This could potentially be a very serious situation unfolding. An area of low pressure sits in the channel and this will bringwith it some very heavy rain for a time this afternoon. This will then transition to snow. At this time it looks as though that will happen between 4-6pm and will last through to 10pm tonight. If this scenario happens then 1-2 cm is likely to fall quite widely with 2-4cm above 100m. If the snow starts later a slushy icey mix is likely to form and will likely cause more disruption, due to surfaces being extra slippery. There is however the chance that the snow starts earlier and this is starting to look more likely. If this scenario takes place then 5-10cm is possible just about anywhere. What we do know is about the time of transition from rain to snow gales are forecasted, this means that visibility could be poor in places with the potential for blizzard conditions. Winds could gust to 60+mph. Please note that thunder snow is also an added hazard. Also we are watching the potential for an additional 1-2cm on Friday morning between 6-10am. This could lead to disruption during the morning rush hour. We are also watching for the potential for some snow on both Saturday, and Sunday, however on Sunday it will transition back to rain during the day. We will keep you updated as we get the information... After the snow and sleet showers that have fallen since Monday how many more days do we have to go???
Well the truth is it isn't actually as cold as it seems. It is actually getting to nine or ten degrees during the day. The reason why we are getting snow and sleet is that the land heats up a lot quicker than the air. This results in instability in the atmosphere creating large shower clouds and some times supercells. In this case the air aloft originates from the arctic and until this arctic influence is cut off the showers will keep falling as sleet or snow. This arctic influence to our weather is slowly going to get cut off from by the jet stream and by Saturday showers should be falling predominantly as rain. For the rest of Wednesday wintery showers are still likely and at times especially later in the day will give some temporary accumulations and some perhaps more prolonged accumulations, however these showers will die away. As for tomorrow (Thursday) there will still be some showers around and these will contain a wintry mix however they will be a lot fewer and further between than they have been over the past few days. Friday looks to be a dull day with a few wintry flurries and Saturday is the change over day. Saturday will be mainly dry with an isolated wintry shower or flurry, however the winds will start to switch round to a more westerly direction brining in a milder feel to the weather with rain showers instead of wintry. As for the outlook there is the slight chance that we may see a brief return to Northerly winds from the Arctic in the middle of next week but, it is too early to say! We will keep you updated if anything changes significantly! As promised we are posting and update...
If we are being honest here at North London Snow watch we aren't any more certain about what is going to happen. The most likely situation is that Central London, and South London will experience Rain With the odd flurry or piece of hail mixed in. The further North, East and West you are this is where it gets more interesting. First thing in the morning it is likely that what will be falling will be Sleet or Snow perhaps giving slight accumulations in places. Then during the day this will likely turn to Sleet or Rain. And then again in the evening anything that is lingering will fall as snow perhaps giving a Cm or Two in places. In the mix of this there is the chance of freezing rain, this could cause potentially dangerous conditions. We will keep you updated if anything changes! This warning is Valid from late in the day on Friday till Saturday morning. At this stage it looks as though majority of London will see rain with perhaps at times during the heavier bursts some sleet and hail mixed in. However the further North and East you are the more likely at this stage that what will be predominately falling will be sleet and perhaps at times falling as snow and providing local accumulations.
We will continue to monitor the situation and we will be posting a finalized version of this on Friday afternoon. There is the chance that this evening as a frontal boundary approaches it will produce some sleet and possibly snow on the back edge of it. This means that to start off with it will be a messy mix of heavy Rain, Sleet, Hail and the possibility of Freezing Rain. On the back edge of this front some cold air will start to interact with it. Whereas some places will just see Rain, Others Most likely to the North and West of London are likely to see Sleet and then Eventually Snow. This could give local accumulations of 1-5cm of wet snow.
We will keep you updated if anything changes. As we head towards tomorrow afternoon there is the chance of a few wintery showers, however nothing significant is expected. Perhaps the odd centimetre of the white stuff is possible in the heaviest of the showers.
The weekend brings us the possibility of some perhaps more prolonged wintry weather, with some perhaps significant snowfall. We will keep you updated as the models keep changing. It is still possible for someone somewhere in this region to wake up to a dusting of snow, with perhaps locally 2-4cm where the heaviest showers occur. However the main band of showers should stay to the east limiting the Snowfall here. There is also the chance of a snow shower through the day on Tuesday, perhaps giving temporary accumulations from time to time.
The main issue tomorrow morning is likely to be the Freezing fog that will likely develop. This fog could be dense and also could cause some problems with black ice. Please be careful if you have to drive tomorrow morning in the fog as conditions could be worse than they might seem. |