Storm 3 is moving across the far northern edges of Scotland as I write this and it is going to be a relatively quick affair. With a central pressure of 972mb and very tightly pack isobars on its western flank, the system poses the threat of bringing 90+ mph gusts to the Scotland as well as some snow to high grounds as those strong winds pull in some Arctic air. Elsewhere today there will be some heavy rain at times and some gusty winds, however these shouldn't be too disruptive, the exception being Wales and the South West of England. Here there is still the potential of gusts over 60mph which could topple trees and bring down power lines. This system will then move out into the North Sea by tomorrow and leave in its wake some of the coldest air of the season so far.
Disruption from this storm is most likely to occur in Scotland where an Amber warning for wind has been issued. Please head to our Facebook page for more information on the warnings. We will keep you updated if anything changes!
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In the wake of ex-hurricane Ophelia, Storm 2 is heading our way.
The most likely scenario for this storm is that it will steam role its way through the central part of Ireland and then head North West up towards Northern England and Southern Scotland before heading out into the North Sea on Sunday. Rainfall with this system could be problematic in Ireland as there is already saturated ground here and there is the potential for at least another 50mm to fall here. Scotland and Wales also could see some localised problems from a similar amount of Rainfall. The Further South and East you are the less rain you will see and at times the weather will actually be quite decent not mirroring that of a deep area of low pressure. The Storm has already reached its peak at the time of writing this and the pressure should rise from 972mb to 986mb upon landfall and it should continue the weakening trend throughout its journey over the British isles. The Worst of the winds will be around the coasts with the worst winds expected in the Irish Sea and the English Channel. Winds here could potentially gust to around 70mph. Elsewhere majority of the country will experience gust of between 40-50mph with some places receiving 60mph gusts of wind. These will could bring down trees and power lines for at this time of year the trees are at the heaviest just before they lose their leaves. We Will keep you updated if we receive any more information on the storm or if anything changes, and you can keep up to date with all the latest weather warnings on our facebook page! It has been since February for a strong storm to come in off the Atlantic and so therefore after a weak below average season last year this year gets started with a bang in the middle of September.
At the moment the storm is still developing in the Atlantic and is expect to make landfall somewhere along central Irish coast within the next hour before heading up along the English/ Scottish Border and then out into the North Sea by tomorrow morning. It is a strengthening storm with a pressure of around 984mb. An Amber warning of wind has been issued for northern parts of The Midlands, southern parts of northern England and the northern fringes of East Anglia, where winds can be expected to exceed 75mph. A YELLOW WARNING of WIND is also in affect for Wales, The Midlands, southern parts of northern England, southwest England and southeast England. Where winds are expected to gust to between 50-65mph throughout the day today and through to tomorrow morning. Rainfall totals will be highest in Northern England, Southern Scotland, and in and around Belfast. Please be aware that some disruption to travel is possible due to flooding and also the potential for downed trees and power lines. The worst of the weather should clear by the time rush hour comes around tomorrow morning, however this system will leave some blustery showers affecting all parts of the UK tomorrow and could cause localised flash flooding where places have already seen substantial amounts of rainfall. We Will Keep You Updated If Anything Changes!!! Storm 4 will under go rapid intensification over the next 24hours reaching a pressure of 984mb. The centre of the storm will track over Ireland and then straight through the heart of England and Wales.
Impacts is likely to be surface water flooding at low ground and over high ground with as much as 30cm of snow due, drifting is likely to be a problem. There is also the chance that one snow will fall to lower levels in the north however this is unlikely to reach the amounts expected at higher altitudes. Wind will also be an issue with 80-90mph winds expected in the heart of the country and 50+mph gusts further south. Scotland is factually likely to miss the worst of the storm at the moment with wintry showers likely here as well as some gusty winds, but not as bad as those expected in England. The storm system should clear into the north sea late Wednesday. We will keep you updated if anything changes!!! A weakening area of low pressure is likely to move through the English channel today and into tomorrow. The original path for the storm was for it to come a shore, however at the moment it is likely that it will in fact now head towards the continent instead, because of this it will actually bring in some cold air behind it and could bring snow to parts of Wales. The wind is also not going to be as much of an issue in the Irish Sea now, however gusts of up to 80 mph are likely on the south coast and the isle of Wight, with 60mph possible in land. There will be some rain for southern England to, the heaviest will be nearer the south coast. If this system does make land fall it would be given the number 4, but at the moment the combination of it weakening and seemingly heading towards the continent will allow it to keep hold of its invest status.
We will keep you updated if anything changes. BARBARA has been named by the met office and is due on Friday, however the centre of the storm at this moment in time is going to be in between Iceland and the UK, therefore we can't number it. We have it down as an invest as with the system after it because we can express except some impacts and because if the path of the storms where to move south we would experience problems widespread in the UK. At the moment gusty winds are likely with 70mph+ in Scotland and 90mph possible in Shetland, or Orkney. The rest of the UK could see 50mph Gusts due to the tightly packed isobars. Both storm systems will have a pressure of 960mb. Also rain will be heaviest in the north with very little reaching the south east.
We will keep you updated if anything changes!! Storm three is actually going to take quite a while to move in from the south making landfall somewhere on the south coast near the Isle of Wight in the early hours of Tuesday morning. On Monday the storm will be gathering strength on the near continent and therefore ahead of this strong winds of 50+mph will be seen across the Southern counties of England. Throughout the day on Tuesday storm 3 will position itself across the country and in doing so weaken dramatically rising from 986mp to 996mpb. This will slowly ease of the wind before gradually moving into the north sea in the early hours of Wednesday. Rain will be a problem (See Amber Warning) and winds are likely to gust to 70+mph in exposed areas. Please see the warnings page for the latest information on the storm.
As for the outlook it looks as though we will see an area of high pressure build in and settle things down for a time. We will keep you updated if anything changes. Storm 2 has now been numbered and here is all you need to know about the storm...
Storm 2 at the moment is sitting just to the west of Ireland gathering energy. Because of the shape of the jet stream the center of this storm throughout the day today will by pass Ireland and the come in from the south west making land fall at a strength of 986mb over Cornwall. It will the head on a path of North east throughout the night of Saturday and clear into the North sea somewhere near Norwich sometime on Sunday morning. The winds are likely to be a problem throughout the night with gusts of 70mph or higher in exposed places along the south coast and throughout the day on Sunday these winds will gradually ease of to around 50mph. The Snowfall that was predicted for the Northern edge of the storm has now been restricted to the southern Pennines and possibly the peak district, there is also a small chance of some snow on the leading edge on the moors in the Southwest and the mountains in Wales. The Rain however will be south of these regions mentioned above and could cause some problems with surface water flooding in the South. Rainfall totals could reach 40+mm in places, but a wide spread 20mm is possible. After the storm has moved through showers will be left behind which could be heavy and also produce hail and lightning. A quick update on Invest 02A, it does look like at the time of writing that it will strengthen into storm 3 and take an interesting track over France and then making a beeline for the South coast. A full update if this scenario seems possible will be at some point in the next day. We will keep you updated if anything changes. We are watching two areas of low pressure after a very inactive period of weather.
The First Invest 01A is likely to hit over night Saturday into the early hours of Sunday. This is very likely to become storm 2 by the time we get to tomorrow evening and firm up on the details. At the moment it is likely to bring potentially disruptive snow to the midlands and wales, as well as flooding rains to the South and east before heading out into the north sea. Winds are likely to be up to 70mph in exposed places. The wind is unlikely to wind down until the next system comes through. Invest 02A is less likely to become a number storm. partially because it is unorganised and also because it is likely to be far enough south that it doesn't directly effect the UK. However we are keeping an eye on it because of the small chance of the track shifting to the north and taking it into Southern England overnight Sunday and throughout the day Monday. This storm is still likely to bring some rain to the south and keep the winds gusting at 60mph in exposed places along the English channel. We will be providing more details on Invest 01A tomorrow evening or Saturday morning when the final details of the storm have been gathered in. Invest 02A we will keep monitoring and will update you at the same time. That's right, after 15 storms last season and a record early start, this storm season is set to begin with storm 1 on Friday. The Start of the storm season is from September through to May. This summer has seen little or no rain fall since June for many parts of the South. This is all set to change with storm one.
Rainfall could become an issue because the ground is parched in places. This means that if heavy rainfalls it will just run off. The heaviest of the rain on Friday is due in the Southwest, South, and Southeast, With heavy Rain also expected to turn up in Northern Ireland, and Scotland. The most likely places for flooding to occur on Friday is Western Scotland and Southwest England, however localised problems could occur elsewhere. Into Saturday and Sunday the heaviest of the rain will be found in Central areas of England and Wales, There will also be some heavy thundery showers elsewhere which could cause surface water flooding due to a large amount of rainfall in a short space of time. The centre of the storm with 996mb will stay quite stable as it ploughs across Ireland and into Central England, however by Sunday it will weaken as it heads out into the North Sea. The Worst of the winds will be to the South of the Storm. This means that on Friday 50-65mph winds will likely be out to sea, but by Saturday morning these winds will have moved into the Irish sea and the English channel. On exposed coasts 70mph isn't out of the Question, however in land winds should stay less than 40mph. By the time Sunday comes around the winds should have died down, with one exception being the East coast where winds could reach 40mph on Sunday. We Will update you if anything changes. |