Yes, another storm system is on the way however affects will be mainly felt across the north of the UK.
The storm will likely clip Northern parts of Scotland overnight Monday into Tuesday. The central pressure will be around 960mb. The Worst of the rain will be in Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. Here flash flooding is possible due to the already saturated ground. Away from the North a rather dull drab day with patches of light drizzle for a time in both England and Wales. Winds will be an issue in The Scotland with 80mph gusts quite widely and even the possibility of 90+mph gusts the further North you are. 60+mph is expected across Northern Ireland, Northern England, and Wales Coasts. Elsewhere 30-45mph gusts are possible. Because of the nature of the winds Overnight Monday into the Early hours of Tuesday will be the peak time for the winds, this means that there is likely to be widespread travel disruption in the North on Tuesday morning. Please be aware of the hazards that can occur with High winds and Flash Flooding. The outlook period sees another potentially strong area of low pressure head our way on Thursday. After this a quieter colder spell of weather is likely.
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Will not be numbered by us as the centre isn't going to come anywhere near our shores however impacts could still be felt in Scotland. The central pressure of this system will be 948mb and it will be centred just south of Iceland. Because of how strong this storm will be 90+mph winds are likely to be felt across many exposed parts of Scotland. Everywhere else except Southern England winds are expected to gust to 60-70mph. However in Southern England gusts are expected to stay at around 50mph. Rain fall from this system will be heaviest and longest lasting in Scotland. Also Snow showers will also start to flood in behind this system, predominantly to high ground. Elsewhere there will be some showers around most frequent in Northern and Southern areas, and here they will occasionally turn into longer spells of rain.
The Outlook period keeps us in this windy pattern for the next 6-8 days. The next system of interest and potential numbering looks to arrive on our shores early in the day on Monday. We will keep you updated if anything changes! Winter storm Juno hit the US east coast as one of, if not, the snowiest system on record with totals well over 30 inches. Now Juno is whizzing across the Atlantic in our direction, but providing us with very different problems.
This storm will be at central pressure of 972mb and will pass very close to northern Scotland during the day on Tuesday before heading out into the North sea slowly throughout the day on Wednesday. The worst of any wind will be the further North and West you are. Here we could see winds occasionally reaching 70 or even 80mph. In the South and East gusts of 40 to 50mph are more likely. As for rainfall the whole of the country will receive heavy rain for a time tomorrow, with the worst of any rain being in the west of the British Isles. Widespread surface water flooding is possible and also river flooding is possible locally. After this we will need to watch the trailing weather front of Juno to see if anything develops. At the moment the models are consistent at bringing wind and rain to the South for a lengthy period of time, however nothing organised is expected to develop. We will keep you updated if anything changes. Storm 11 has taken its time in developing. This means that throughout the day on Sunday the pressure will drop to 972mb as it heads from Ireland up to eastern Scotland. It is then likely to stall just of the coast and then head back inland during the day in Monday. This means that the rain and snow totals will start to tot up in Scotland, and further flooding is not out of the question. The winds now could gust up to 80mph in some exposed places. The storm is then expected to stall on the Scottish border, before heading out into the north sea on Tuesday as a much weakened feature. The whole of the British isles are likely to see rain at some point during this period, however the worst effected areas will be the further north and south you are.
We will need to keep an eye on a couple of systems running through the channel. The first of which will be on Sunday evening. We will keep you updated if these are expected to cause any impacts, and if anything changes again with storm 11. The path an intensity of the storm has changed! On Saturday it will enter the country as an elongated area of low pressure with the main centre over Ireland. The pressure will be around 986mb. Part of this low pressure system will break off and intensify to 972mb at the same time as zipping up towards Scotland. The next stage is vital as to where the heaviest of the rain and snow will be. At the time of writing and this could change. The centre is expected to stall over the north of Scotland. What this would do is bring some very gusty wind possibly 70mph to Scotland and the heaviest of the rain Would be west, and East Scotland. This is possibly the worst case scenario as the ground in both the places mention is saturated and would likely lead to some wide spread flooding and disruption to travel. After this throughout the day on Sunday the Storm will slowly weaken and head into the North sea. The exact position the storm makes a southerly turn after this, could potentially bring some rain, sleet, and snow to the east coast through the day on Sunday and into Monday. Elsewhere there are likely to be heavy thundery showers through the day on Saturday with gusty winds and the potential for hail, and thunder. These could at times merge together to form longer bands of rain. Surface water flooding is likely just about anywhere.
The other half of the storm is expected to head south and Strengthen. At the moment the worst of the weather looks to be in the near continent, however if it strengthens further North we could see a period of strong wind and rain for the South coast of England through the day on Sunday. We will keep you updated if anything changes. We are naming the deep area of low pressure sitting to the west of us Invest 08A because the latest model runs show it swinging round and then hitting the UK straight on. Please note that it would however be as a weakened system as at the moment it is 960mb and by the time it gets to Ireland it should be around 986mb. It is likely to swing round and hit Southern Ireland through the day and then turn up towards the Scottish Boarders. This is something we will need to keep an eye on as the worst of the weather will likely head up towards the already flood hit areas in Scotland, and the North of England. Rain is still likely further south, but it won't have the same impact as up north. The worst of the wind is likely to be on any coasts facing the Irish sea.
Behind this system it is likely to bring in some cold air straight from the Arctic so there will be a noticeable difference to the weather next week. We will post another update on this storm, most likely on Friday evening. A drop of pressure in the centre of the storm has meant that it is now 972mb and will brush the south coast of Ireland some time today, and then Southern England late in the day on Monday, will feel the full strength of the storm. It is only however going to have a pressure of 986mb at the time of landfall in the south and will always be weakening as the low pressure to the west squeezes it between the high pressure in the east. At the moment the first batch of heavy rain and strong winds are moving across the country. The winds could gust to 50-60mph quite widely. After this rain won't be as much of an issue except for the persistent rain in northeast Scotland where an Amber WARNING has been issued. Elsewhere showers outbreaks of rain occasionally forming Longer periods of rain are likely elsewhere, accompanied by strong winds which by Monday could gust to 70+mph in places. It should move into the near continent by late Tuesday early Wednesday.
Invest 06A has been upgraded to storm 9. This is because the storm has now strengthen briefly to 986mb before it makes landfall in the early hours of tomorrow morning in Cornwall. Because of this strengthening winds along the south coast are currently gusting to 40-50mph and as the storm nears 60mph is possible. Rain is likely to be an issue in Walse and SouthWest England. It could latter in the day on Saturday cause some problems in central and eastern parts of England. Winds aren't expected to be a problem here. The centre of the storm will become ever smaller as the next system squeezes it between an area of high pressure. This means that by Sunday there will be almost nothing left of the storm. What is left will give some showers to eastern parts before being dragged up to eastern Scotland and producing some prolonged rain this we need to keep an eye on as the rain may stall there for several days. This could lead to some flooding problems.
We will keep you updated if anything changes. |