Storm 7 or Clodagh is upon us with a central pressure of around 972mb. This is forecast to bring and has brought wind close to 100mph to parts of Ireland and is forecast to bring those winds into Scotland shortly. Heavy rain is forecast to affect the whole of the British Isles at some point due to this storm. The heaviest of which will be in the North. Also there has been and still will be Heavy snow falling in Scotland even to lower levels at times. This storm will depart our shores in the early hours of tomorrow morning!
There have already been widespread power outages in Ireland due to the storm! Storm 8, if one doesn't form before then. is likely to affect the south of England from Thursday evening until Friday morning. Snow is likely to fall on the northern edge of the storm so the position of the storm is key. There is likely to be extremely heavy rain falling in Southern England on already saturated ground so there is a likely flood risk to low lying places in the south. Please keep your eye on the forecast as this storm could be a 'huge blow' as well as the rain, with 80-90mph winds and locally stronger. We will keep you updated as always, with the final update on storm 8 on Wednesday evening.
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We said that on our last update it would be today (Friday), however the area of low pressure didn't strengthen enough before landfall to make it to named storm strength.
In the outlook period we will look towards the north west for our next numbered system. The next possible time that the a weather system strong enough to be named will be at the earliest the end of next week. This lull however will initially bring with it its own problems, as weather fronts and low pressure systems will come straight down from the Arctic. We will be numbering the first winter storm of the season with our next update. (within the next 30 mins). We will keep you up to date if anything changes! Storm 5/ Barney is battering southern parts of the UK as we speak with winds gusting to between 50-85mph with the potential for gusts of up to 90mph on some exposed coasts.
Storm 6 however will be an equally quick affair Throughout the day on Wednesday, however this time affecting the Far North of Scotland. Wind warnings have been issued for Scotland at this stage (see Alerts page). We expect gusts of between 50-70mph. Elsewhere a fairly blustery day courtesy of both the low pressure systems, however winds in the south will ease before slowly ramping up, though nothing like what we are seeing at the moment. The rain with this system could cause some issues in Scotland and Northern England as the ground is already saturated from recent storms. The central pressure will be 984mb at the time of landfall. Storm 7 behind it will be strongest at landfall on Friday morning before merging with another system. This will have pressure of 986mb rising to 996mb. we will update you on Thursday about this storm. There is the potential for the first number snow storm on Sunday we will update you at the next time of writing!!! Before the end of this week we have the potential to see 3 vigorous areas of low pressure. The first has been named Barney or by us it has been given the number 5. This will zip across southern Britain with a central pressure of a around 986mb. This will lead to in exposed places gusts of between 70-80mph and elsewhere the potential for gusts of 60-70mph. Rain fall with this system will be limited given the quick nature of the storm. The time span for the worst winds and the centre moving from west to east will be Tuesday late afternoon and exiting into the north sea Tuesday late evening. Please check our warning page for if the wind warnings are upgraded and for any other concerns with the system.
The system following in the wake of Barney/ storm 5 will be pushed north wards by a ridge of high pressure. this is expected to make landfall in northern Scotland on Wednesday evening with a central pressure of 986mb. This area is being given the number storm 6 and a further statement will be issued nearer the time. The system after that during the day on Friday will cross the country a little further North than Barney. This is being given the number 7 and a further statement will be issued nearer the time. the central pressure will be 984mb with the potential for another storm to push in behind it. We will keep you update as we get the information. Storm 4 also known as Abigail has been named/ numbered. This storm is forecast to clip the Northern Isles with a pressure of around 986mb, but intensifying as it moves away to 972mb.
The main issue will be winds of around 70-80mph affecting the north of Scotland Thursday night, as the storm moves through. The storm will have moved away by Friday evening. Snow is likely to fall from time to time at higher elevations, but elsewhere rain will be the main feature. there could be localised flooding anywhere from central England North as the ground is already saturated. The south should stay mainly dry. Go to our warnings page to stay up to date. As for the outlook period we need to watch hurricane Kate in the Atlantic as the latest forecasts have it bulldozing over the country late this week as a post-tropical cyclone. (and a much weakened feature) There could still be some gusty winds and rain though so we will keep you updated when we get the information. there will still be the same affects however this storm won't strengthen past depression status. We are designating it an invest area. this makes the system invest 01A. This stands for the first invest area from the Atlantic. Despite this we are now expecting some strong winds to come in, but with slightly less rain. There could be some localised flooding due to blocked drains. at this time i think the worst of the winds will be the further North and the further South you are.
As we are watching this area we will keep you updated if it does strengthen. Our models are picking up on the fact that their could be a numbered storm on the way for Saturday, This is the first time we have seen it and as the proposed track takes it from the north west of Scotland and then eventually dissipating on Sunday over central England it is hard to forecast the storm as this is an unusual track. If this storm does come in we are expecting a lot of rain to feed in behind it from draping weather fronts. The storms at this time should stay over Iceland. Saturday is very much the exception. Surface water flooding will be an issue in the north throughout this week even if the storm doesn't come in. Strong winds will also be a feature and are expected to strengthen day by day as we head into the new working week.
We Will update you on what is going to happen some time tomorrow evening when we can be sure of what is going to happen. |