There is the potential after a quiet spell that a late season storm could develop Friday night and through out the day on Saturday. At the Moment the heaviest of the rain is likely to be from central England Northwards and the winds could be potentially above Gale force pretty much anywhere. We are warning you about this storm now because even though it might not happen or it could be weaker the fact that it is later in the season the impacts could potentially be worse than the same storm occurring in December - For example. If Heavy rain falls in the south or South East then flood is likely to be an issue because here the ground in some places is already parched. Winds could be an issue almost anywhere because there are leaves on the trees and there for the branches are heavier and can cause more damage.
For the rest of this week starting Wednesday areas of weak low pressures will hit our shores. These will contain wind and rain, however at the moment not to the extent that Invest 09A will contain. We will update you on Thursday evening or Friday morning when we have more information! Update: At this moment in time we are still monitoring the development of this low, however it does look as though this low will move to the North of the Uk and take the windiest weather with it. But, the rain could still potentially be heavy and thundery for pretty much anywhere in the Uk due to the trailing weather fronts. This rain we will need to watch, but we now don't expect a named or numbered storm!
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Sunday night into Monday and possibly not clearing away until Tuesday is our first storm of the spring and since February!! On Sunday the area of low pressure will be tracking towards the UK from the South West however the current forecast takes it up from the South West and then throughout the day on Monday heading west aiming directly for central England and then out into the North sea by Tuesday effecting eastern portions of Scotland. Winds in the South of Britain could reach 70+mph (see alerts) and elsewhere 50-60mph is likely. Rain will be particularly heavy in the South West of England and could lead to some flooding here, and also eastern Scotland and Wales flooding isn't out of the question but it is less likely to occur. Everywhere will see some rain with the exceptions at the moment being North and West Scotland and majority of Northern Ireland and Ireland. We Will keep you updated if anything changes from this forecast! Update!!!
The timing of the storm has changed as it is expected to move through quicker, but with a greater intensity. The storm has started to move into the South West and throughout the night will track Northwest bringing the worst of the weather into Southeast England by dawn before moving out into the north sea by the Afternoon. The Worst of the rain and where we are most likely to see the flooding is in the Southeast, however due to the saturated nature of the ground in the South and Southwest flooding is also possible here. Rain is not expected to amount to much in Scotland or in North Wales or Northern Ireland as the rain is expected to miss here all together. The worst of the winds will be in the South and East where here 60-70mph is likely inland and 75+mph on exposed coasts and hills. Elsewhere isolated gusts of 40-50mph can't be ruled out. We will keep you updated if anything changes. As Storm 13 moves away and breaks off the elongated area of low pressure Storm 14/ Imogen will be left in its wake...
Yep, that's right storm 14 is on the way and this one is likely to bring disruptive weather tomorrow morning, but this time in the South. At the moment the storm is sitting just west of Ireland at 960mb, and is expected to move over Ireland and then up towards Scotland throughout the day on Monday, before moving out into the North sea and not really leaving until Wednesday. As the storm moves over Scotland the centre will elongate pushing the worst of the winds towards the south Coast. This will be because of the tightening of the isobars around the southern edge of the storm system. Winds overnight Sunday, and throughout the day on Monday will gust to 80mph widely along the South Coast, However exposed places, such as the southern facing coasts of the Isle of Wight could see gusts of over 90mph and an Amber warning is in place, however I wouldn't be surprised if a Red warning for wind is issued at some point. Inland winds could gust to 70mph, and in the North just 40 or 50mph. Rain with this system will likely exasperate the flooding issues in the South West and will likely cause some more widespread flooding in Wales, The West Of Scotland, and Southern England, with the South East only having the possibility of flooding. The worst of the rain will be overnight Sunday into Monday. However, there is the possibility for more prolonged rain on Tuesday in those places mention above. Otherwise showers are likely anywhere not mentioned, with them becoming wintry in the far North. The Outlook period does look as though we could see another system potentially bulldozing straight through the country Overnight Thursday into Friday. This is something we will be keeping an eye on in the coming days! Storm 13 will bring impacts to slightly different parts of the UK as well as the norm. Throughout the day on Saturday the storm will move its way up the Western facing coast of Ireland and then make a beeline for the North of Scotland and by Sunday it will be centred over Northern Scotland. However the worst of the winds are going to be felt in the south with 60-70mph gusts with 70+mph possible in places. The North wont completely escape as the central pressure will be around 972mb meaning that the winds could potentially reach 60+mph. As far as rain is concerned everywhere for a time will see some locally heavy rain push through with the potential of flooding greatest anywhere away from Central, and Eastern areas of the UK.
After this it is unclear what will happen. This is because there is another area of low pressure directly behind it that may bump into Storm 13 and merge and sit over or just to the East of the UK. If it sits to the east it will bring with it some colder air so we will need to watch this. An update on this storm will follow on Saturday evening or Sunday morning. Yes, another storm system is on the way however affects will be mainly felt across the north of the UK.
The storm will likely clip Northern parts of Scotland overnight Monday into Tuesday. The central pressure will be around 960mb. The Worst of the rain will be in Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. Here flash flooding is possible due to the already saturated ground. Away from the North a rather dull drab day with patches of light drizzle for a time in both England and Wales. Winds will be an issue in The Scotland with 80mph gusts quite widely and even the possibility of 90+mph gusts the further North you are. 60+mph is expected across Northern Ireland, Northern England, and Wales Coasts. Elsewhere 30-45mph gusts are possible. Because of the nature of the winds Overnight Monday into the Early hours of Tuesday will be the peak time for the winds, this means that there is likely to be widespread travel disruption in the North on Tuesday morning. Please be aware of the hazards that can occur with High winds and Flash Flooding. The outlook period sees another potentially strong area of low pressure head our way on Thursday. After this a quieter colder spell of weather is likely. Will not be numbered by us as the centre isn't going to come anywhere near our shores however impacts could still be felt in Scotland. The central pressure of this system will be 948mb and it will be centred just south of Iceland. Because of how strong this storm will be 90+mph winds are likely to be felt across many exposed parts of Scotland. Everywhere else except Southern England winds are expected to gust to 60-70mph. However in Southern England gusts are expected to stay at around 50mph. Rain fall from this system will be heaviest and longest lasting in Scotland. Also Snow showers will also start to flood in behind this system, predominantly to high ground. Elsewhere there will be some showers around most frequent in Northern and Southern areas, and here they will occasionally turn into longer spells of rain.
The Outlook period keeps us in this windy pattern for the next 6-8 days. The next system of interest and potential numbering looks to arrive on our shores early in the day on Monday. We will keep you updated if anything changes! Winter storm Juno hit the US east coast as one of, if not, the snowiest system on record with totals well over 30 inches. Now Juno is whizzing across the Atlantic in our direction, but providing us with very different problems.
This storm will be at central pressure of 972mb and will pass very close to northern Scotland during the day on Tuesday before heading out into the North sea slowly throughout the day on Wednesday. The worst of any wind will be the further North and West you are. Here we could see winds occasionally reaching 70 or even 80mph. In the South and East gusts of 40 to 50mph are more likely. As for rainfall the whole of the country will receive heavy rain for a time tomorrow, with the worst of any rain being in the west of the British Isles. Widespread surface water flooding is possible and also river flooding is possible locally. After this we will need to watch the trailing weather front of Juno to see if anything develops. At the moment the models are consistent at bringing wind and rain to the South for a lengthy period of time, however nothing organised is expected to develop. We will keep you updated if anything changes. Storm 11 has taken its time in developing. This means that throughout the day on Sunday the pressure will drop to 972mb as it heads from Ireland up to eastern Scotland. It is then likely to stall just of the coast and then head back inland during the day in Monday. This means that the rain and snow totals will start to tot up in Scotland, and further flooding is not out of the question. The winds now could gust up to 80mph in some exposed places. The storm is then expected to stall on the Scottish border, before heading out into the north sea on Tuesday as a much weakened feature. The whole of the British isles are likely to see rain at some point during this period, however the worst effected areas will be the further north and south you are.
We will need to keep an eye on a couple of systems running through the channel. The first of which will be on Sunday evening. We will keep you updated if these are expected to cause any impacts, and if anything changes again with storm 11. The path an intensity of the storm has changed! On Saturday it will enter the country as an elongated area of low pressure with the main centre over Ireland. The pressure will be around 986mb. Part of this low pressure system will break off and intensify to 972mb at the same time as zipping up towards Scotland. The next stage is vital as to where the heaviest of the rain and snow will be. At the time of writing and this could change. The centre is expected to stall over the north of Scotland. What this would do is bring some very gusty wind possibly 70mph to Scotland and the heaviest of the rain Would be west, and East Scotland. This is possibly the worst case scenario as the ground in both the places mention is saturated and would likely lead to some wide spread flooding and disruption to travel. After this throughout the day on Sunday the Storm will slowly weaken and head into the North sea. The exact position the storm makes a southerly turn after this, could potentially bring some rain, sleet, and snow to the east coast through the day on Sunday and into Monday. Elsewhere there are likely to be heavy thundery showers through the day on Saturday with gusty winds and the potential for hail, and thunder. These could at times merge together to form longer bands of rain. Surface water flooding is likely just about anywhere.
The other half of the storm is expected to head south and Strengthen. At the moment the worst of the weather looks to be in the near continent, however if it strengthens further North we could see a period of strong wind and rain for the South coast of England through the day on Sunday. We will keep you updated if anything changes. We are naming the deep area of low pressure sitting to the west of us Invest 08A because the latest model runs show it swinging round and then hitting the UK straight on. Please note that it would however be as a weakened system as at the moment it is 960mb and by the time it gets to Ireland it should be around 986mb. It is likely to swing round and hit Southern Ireland through the day and then turn up towards the Scottish Boarders. This is something we will need to keep an eye on as the worst of the weather will likely head up towards the already flood hit areas in Scotland, and the North of England. Rain is still likely further south, but it won't have the same impact as up north. The worst of the wind is likely to be on any coasts facing the Irish sea.
Behind this system it is likely to bring in some cold air straight from the Arctic so there will be a noticeable difference to the weather next week. We will post another update on this storm, most likely on Friday evening. |